Retirement Spending Smile Calculator
Use this calculator to turn a starting spending amount into an age-by-age retirement spending projection based on David Blanchett's published equation. It separates the real spending path from future-dollar spending and shows how guaranteed income can reduce portfolio withdrawals.
Lowest real annual spending$46,750.99
- Age at lowest real spending
- 90
- Final-year nominal spending
- $100,328.71
- Cumulative nominal spending
- $2,350,235.75
- Cumulative portfolio withdrawals
- $1,078,852.53
- Withdrawal reduction versus constant real spending
- $409,780.49
- Ending real spending change
- -0.2%
Annual spending schedule
| Age | Annual real change | Real spending | Nominal spending | Guaranteed income | Portfolio withdrawal | Constant-real spending | Constant-real withdrawal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0% | $60,000.00 | $60,000.00 | $30,000.00 | $30,000.00 | $60,000.00 | $30,000.00 |
| 66 | -0% | $59,811.97 | $61,307.27 | $30,600.00 | $30,707.27 | $61,500.00 | $30,900.00 |
| 67 | -0% | $59,514.51 | $62,527.44 | $31,212.00 | $31,315.44 | $63,037.50 | $31,825.50 |
| 68 | -0.01% | $59,119.32 | $63,665.05 | $31,836.24 | $31,828.81 | $64,613.44 | $32,777.20 |
| 69 | -0.01% | $58,638.31 | $64,725.73 | $32,472.96 | $32,252.76 | $66,228.77 | $33,755.81 |
| 70 | -0.01% | $58,083.46 | $65,716.10 | $33,122.42 | $32,593.68 | $67,884.49 | $34,762.07 |
| 71 | -0.01% | $57,466.63 | $66,643.68 | $33,784.87 | $32,858.81 | $69,581.61 | $35,796.73 |
| 72 | -0.01% | $56,799.50 | $67,516.75 | $34,460.57 | $33,056.18 | $71,321.15 | $36,860.58 |
| 73 | -0.01% | $56,093.36 | $68,344.31 | $35,149.78 | $33,194.53 | $73,104.17 | $37,954.39 |
| 74 | -0.01% | $55,359.13 | $69,135.96 | $35,852.78 | $33,283.19 | $74,931.78 | $39,079.00 |
| 75 | -0.01% | $54,607.21 | $69,901.85 | $36,569.83 | $33,332.01 | $76,805.07 | $40,235.24 |
| 76 | -0.01% | $53,847.50 | $70,652.59 | $37,301.23 | $33,351.36 | $78,725.20 | $41,423.97 |
| 77 | -0.01% | $53,089.34 | $71,399.26 | $38,047.25 | $33,352.00 | $80,693.33 | $42,646.08 |
| 78 | -0.01% | $52,341.51 | $72,153.35 | $38,808.20 | $33,345.15 | $82,710.66 | $43,902.46 |
| 79 | -0.01% | $51,612.25 | $72,926.77 | $39,584.36 | $33,342.40 | $84,778.43 | $45,194.07 |
| 80 | -0.01% | $50,909.30 | $73,731.84 | $40,376.05 | $33,355.79 | $86,897.89 | $46,521.84 |
| 81 | -0.01% | $50,239.87 | $74,581.36 | $41,183.57 | $33,397.79 | $89,070.34 | $47,886.77 |
| 82 | -0.01% | $49,610.76 | $75,488.63 | $42,007.24 | $33,481.39 | $91,297.10 | $49,289.85 |
| 83 | -0.01% | $49,028.38 | $76,467.54 | $42,847.39 | $33,620.15 | $93,579.52 | $50,732.14 |
| 84 | -0.01% | $48,498.82 | $77,532.65 | $43,704.34 | $33,828.31 | $95,919.01 | $52,214.68 |
| 85 | -0.01% | $48,027.93 | $78,699.35 | $44,578.42 | $34,120.93 | $98,316.99 | $53,738.56 |
| 86 | -0.01% | $47,621.37 | $79,984.00 | $45,469.99 | $34,514.01 | $100,774.91 | $55,304.92 |
| 87 | -0.01% | $47,284.75 | $81,404.07 | $46,379.39 | $35,024.68 | $103,294.28 | $56,914.89 |
| 88 | -0.01% | $47,023.64 | $82,978.42 | $47,306.98 | $35,671.44 | $105,876.64 | $58,569.66 |
| 89 | -0% | $46,843.75 | $84,727.51 | $48,253.12 | $36,474.39 | $108,523.56 | $60,270.44 |
| 90 | -0% | $46,750.99 | $86,673.73 | $49,218.18 | $37,455.55 | $111,236.65 | $62,018.47 |
| 91 | 0% | $46,751.60 | $88,841.72 | $50,202.54 | $38,639.17 | $114,017.56 | $63,815.02 |
| 92 | 0% | $46,852.24 | $91,258.80 | $51,206.59 | $40,052.21 | $116,868.00 | $65,661.41 |
| 93 | 0% | $47,060.20 | $93,955.46 | $52,230.73 | $41,724.73 | $119,789.70 | $67,558.97 |
| 94 | 0.01% | $47,383.48 | $96,965.90 | $53,275.34 | $43,690.56 | $122,784.44 | $69,509.10 |
| 95 | 0.01% | $47,830.98 | $100,328.71 | $54,340.85 | $45,987.86 | $125,854.05 | $71,513.21 |
Real spending follows the Blanchett annual-change equation; nominal spending uses the general inflation rate you entered.
How to use this calculator
- Enter the age when the projection starts and the age through which you want to plan.
- Enter your first-year after-tax household spending, including spending covered by income sources.
- Enter general inflation so the calculator can translate the real spending path into nominal dollars.
- Add the first-year after-tax guaranteed income and its expected annual increase.
- Review the schedule alongside the constant-real-spending comparison before using it in a wider retirement plan.
How the retirement spending smile is calculated
The retirement spending smile describes an average pattern found in household data: real spending often falls through middle retirement, then the annual decline slows and may turn into an increase at older ages. This calculator starts with your after-tax spending at retirement and applies David Blanchett's estimated annual real change recursively for each later age.
For each age after the first, the annual real spending change is:
d = 0.00008 × age² − 0.0125 × age − 0.0066 × ln(prior real spending) + 0.546
The next year's real spending is prior real spending × (1 + d). The natural-log term means the starting spending level changes the curve; it is not a single percentage reduction applied to every household. The first year is the amount you enter, with no calculated change yet.
Nominal spending is the real amount multiplied by (1 + inflation)^years since retirement. Guaranteed income is increased separately by its own annual rate. The portfolio withdrawal for a year is the greater of zero or nominal spending minus nominal guaranteed income. A zero is shown when income exceeds spending because the tool does not treat surplus income as a portfolio contribution.
What moves the projection most
Starting age, starting spending, and the ending horizon drive the shape of the real schedule. Inflation does not alter that real path, but it can make nominal spending rise even while real spending falls. The guaranteed-income amount and its annual increase determine how much of each nominal spending need remains for a portfolio to cover. The comparison column instead holds real spending level and raises it with inflation every year.
What this model does not tell you
This is a planning illustration based on an average relationship in U.S. household survey data, not a forecast for one household or a safe-withdrawal rule. The paper notes that observed reductions can reflect changing preferences, reduced resources, or both. Medical costs, long-term care, taxes, investment returns, account balances, required distributions, mortality, and portfolio failure are not modeled here. Add known large expenses separately and use detailed cash-flow, tax, and investment analysis before making a retirement decision.
Worked example
Suppose retirement starts at age 65 with $60,000 of after-tax annual spending, 2.5% inflation, $30,000 of guaranteed income, and a 2% guaranteed-income increase. At age 66, the equation gives an annual real change of about -0.31%, so real spending is about $59,812. With inflation, that is about $61,307 in nominal spending. Guaranteed income rises to $30,600, leaving a portfolio withdrawal of about $30,707.
At age 95, the same projection has real spending of about $47,831, but nominal spending is about $100,329 because of accumulated inflation. The age-by-age table shows the portfolio gap beside a constant-real-spending path, which would need about $125,854 of nominal spending at that age before subtracting guaranteed income.
Common questions
What is the retirement spending smile?
It is a research-based description of how average inflation-adjusted household spending can change during retirement. Spending commonly declines in middle retirement as discretionary activity changes, while the decline can slow or reverse at older ages as health and care needs become more important.
Why can real retirement spending decline while nominal spending rises?
Real spending is adjusted for general inflation, while nominal spending is the number of future dollars needed to buy it. If the real decline is smaller than inflation, the future-dollar amount rises even though the household is consuming less in inflation-adjusted terms.
At what age does retirement spending usually reach its low point?
There is no universal age because the equation changes with starting spending and the selected horizon. The calculator reports the first low point in your own schedule; if it occurs at the ending age, the plan ends before a later upturn can be observed.
Does the spending smile apply to every household?
No. It is an average model derived from survey data, and individual paths can differ substantially because of health, family support, housing, travel, work, and financial resources. Treat the curve as one scenario to test, not a prediction of personal behavior.
How does Social Security or pension income change portfolio withdrawals?
The calculator grows the guaranteed-income amount at the annual rate you enter and subtracts it from each year's nominal spending. It never shows a negative withdrawal, so income above projected spending creates a zero portfolio gap rather than an assumed investment contribution.
Should healthcare or long-term-care costs be modeled separately?
Yes, especially for known care needs, insurance premiums, or housing changes. The equation is an average total-spending relationship and cannot price a household-specific medical or long-term-care event.